Product Packaging Metaphors: Effects of Ambiguity and Explanatory Information on Consumer Appreciation and Brand Perception

Product packaging is an important means for communicating product and brand benefits. Research suggests that visual metaphors may be particularly suited in this context, however, the conditions under which metaphors are effective are not yet well understood. In the research reported herein, effects of metaphor ambiguity and explanatory information on consumer appreciation and brand personality perceptions are tested. Study 1 shows that explicit information explaining the metaphor increases consumer appreciation and positively affects brand perception, but only for ambiguous metaphors. Study 2 shows that drawing consumer attention to packaging design by means of a visual packaging cue may be equally or even more effective for enhancing consumer appreciation and steering brand personality perceptions. In addition, Study 2 shows that effects of explanatory information and information type vary with participants’ readiness to engage in metaphor processing. Together, the results provide greater insight into the effects of metaphors in product design and provide guidelines to packaging designers.     

Small firm internationalization,innovation, and growth

This paper studies the effect of internationalization on innovation and firm performance (employment growth and sales growth) taking the interdependencies among the variables into account. Given the potential endogeneity, this study uses theory-driven instrumental variables and structural equation modelling to estimate the direct and indirect effects of internationalization. Firm-level data is obtained from a survey of 150 Dutch small firms that took part in an export promotion program. The main results show that internationalization has a positive impact on innovation. Internationalization increases firm performance directly and indirectly through innovation, while the direct impact of innovation on firm performance is insignificant. We contribute to the literature of export promotion programs as our results suggest that they not only increase small firm internationalization but also affect innovation and firm growth.     

What Corporate Governance Can Learn from Catholic Social Teaching

This reflection focuses on what insights Catholic Social Teaching (CST) can provide for corporate governance. I argue that the ‘standard’ agency theory is overly reductionist and insufficiently incorporates important economic limitations (such as asymmetric information, incomplete contracts, and the need for coordination) as well as human frailty. As a result, such agency theory insufficiently distinguishes firms from markets, which can easily relativize how we treat others and facilitate rationalization of unethical behavior. I then explore how three pillars of CST—human dignity, solidarity, and subsidiarity—can help overcome these limitations. CST proposes a vision of the business corporation as a community of persons, working together in cooperative business relationships toward the shared purpose of contributing to human flourishing.     

Bayesian inference in a sample selection model

This paper develops methods of Bayesian inference in a sample selection model. The main feature of this model is that the outcome variable is only partially observed. We first present a Gibbs sampling algorithm for a model in which the selection and outcome errors are normally distributed. The algorithm is then extended to analyze models that are characterized by nonnormality. Specifically, we use a Dirichlet process prior and model the distribution of the unobservables as a mixture of normal distributions with a random number of components. The posterior distribution in this model can simultaneously detect the presence of selection effects and departures from normality. Our methods are illustrated using some simulated data and an abstract from the RAND health insurance experiment.     

Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Model Selection Perspective

Attempts to characterize stock return predictability have resultedin little consensus on the important conditioning variables,giving rise to model uncertainty and data snooping fears. Weintroduce a new methodology that explicitly incorporates modeluncertainty by comparing all possible models simultaneouslyand in which the priors are calibrated to reflect economicallymeaningful information. Our approach minimizes data snoopinggiven the information set and the priors. We compare the priorviews of a skeptic and a confident investor. The data implyposterior probabilities that are in general more supportiveof stock return predictability than the priors for both typesof investors.     

Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching

We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a deterministic function of the current state of the chain. In this setting, the objective of the company is to maximize the expected cumulative discounted dividend payments until the moment of bankruptcy, which is taken to be the first time that the cash reserves (the cumulative net revenues minus cumulative dividend payments) are zero. We show that if the drift is positive in each state, it is optimal to adopt a barrier strategy at certain positive regime-dependent levels, and provide an explicit characterization of the value function as the fixed point of a contraction. In the case that the drift is small and negative in one state, the optimal strategy takes a different form, which we explicitly identify if there are two regimes. We also provide a numerical illustration of the sensitivities of the optimal barriers and the influence of regime switching.     

Contingent convertible bonds: Who invests in European CoCos?

Using a comprehensive data set on issuances and holdings of contingent convertible debt instruments (CoCos) issued by European banks, we investigate who invests in European CoCos. The results indicate that most European CoCos are not directly held by euro area investors. Foreign investors outside the euro area and investment funds located in Ireland and Luxembourg hold the large majority. Euro area banks, insurers and pension funds only have very limited direct exposures. Households in the euro area hold almost no direct positions in European CoCos, although there could be indirect holdings through non-euro area entities and euro area investment funds. Concerns for contagion through cross-holdings of CoCos by banks seem to be unwarranted.     

Time-varying state variable risk premia in the ICAPM

We find that the relation between state variables, such as the t-bill rate and term spread, and consumption growth is time-varying. In the cross-section of U.S. stocks, risk premia for exposure to state variables vary over time accordingly. When a state variable predicts consumption strongly relative to its own history, its annualized risk premium increases by 6% (0.4 in Sharpe ratio). This effect implies that risk premia can switch signs and are increasing in the conditional variance of the state variable. These common drivers of time-varying risk premia are consistent with the Intertemporal CAPM. Benchmark factors contain the same conditional expected return effects as state variable risk premia.     

CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED BARRIER OPTIONS UNDER MARKOV PROCESSES

In this paper, we present an algorithm for pricing barrier options in one‐dimensional Markov models. The approach rests on the construction of an approximating continuous‐time Markov chain that closely follows the dynamics of the given Markov model. We illustrate the method by implementing it for a range of models, including a local Lévy process and a local volatility jump‐diffusion. We also provide a convergence proof and error estimates for this algorithm.     

House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership

Using a repeat-sales methodology, this paper finds that estimates of house price risk based on aggregate house price indices substantially underestimate the true size of house price risk. This is the result of the fact that aggregate house price indices average away the idiosyncratic volatility in house prices. Additional results show that the idiosyncratic risk exceeds the hedging benefits of home ownership. These results imply that for many home owners, owning a house may well add more price risk than it hedges away. These findings are based on a detailed dataset of individual housing transactions in the Netherlands.